Berkant Cünnük - A mathematical model to compare mass ivermectin treatment and vector control policies for river blindness (Onchocerciasis)

Poster

Date: Wednesday, Oct 8, 2025

Time: 15:30

Place: Online

Meeting ID: 671 136 5017

Passcode: AbGP2y

Abstract:

In this talk, we investigate the dynamics of river blindness (Onchocerciasis) with an SEIR epi-

demiology model. Onchocerciasis is a parasitic disease caused by a filarial worm (Onchocerca

volvulus) and transmitted through blackflies (Simulium Latreille). The transmission mechanism

of the disease is mathematically modelled by a system of ODEs. We take the effects of mass

drug policies (ivermectin), vector control strategies, and different treatment rates for exposed and

infected individuals into account to assess the effectiveness of these methods. Mass drug policies,

although they are safer, take considerably longer to wipe out the parasite. On the other hand, vec-

tor control strategies eliminate the transmission of the parasite rather quickly but result in mass

human casualties. In light of our simulation results, we propose a strategy that uses a combination

of both of these methods